A review of sentencing following a growing crisis in prisons has found the sharp increase in the prison population has been due to a ‘tough on crime’ narrative by successive governments, based on ’embedded misunderstandings’ about sentencing.

The report highlights longer sentences as the primary cause of the rise in number of people behind bars, criticising sentencing policy that has been ‘sufficiently focused on the most effective ways to reduce crime’. It states the rise in the prison population has actually seen resources diverted away from activities, like probation and rehabilitation initiatives, that could actually reduce offending.

The review was commissioned by the government as the growth in the prison population reached crisis levels in 2024, leading to overcrowding, poor conditions, and the need for the early release of offenders, what the report describes as ‘coming close to total collapse’. It is being led by former Justice Minister Lord David Gauke, with a final report due in spring this year.

Future demand and supply projections for the adult prison estate, including recently announced demand measures

At the end of 2024, over 85,000 individuals were held in the adult prison estate, a number that ‘undeniably exceeds’ the population the system is designed to hold. The total prison population has risen by over 40,000 since 1993.

Lord Gauke has used this initial report to criticise a system overreliant on punishment, rather than rehabilitation, reparation and public safety. The increase in sentence-length by successive governments has led to ‘expensive and risky’ short-term measures to increase capacity within prisons, an ‘incoherent approach’ that does nothing to reduce crime.

The report has found that the likelihood of reoffending after serving a custodial sentence is substantial, and in fact higher than following a non-custodial sentence. Those leaving custody have the highest reoffending rates – 37.2% in the latest data, and the highest rates of reoffending are following short prison sentences (56.9%).

Gauke has also condemned a system that is ‘inefficient and incoherent’, which ’causes confusion and frustration to victims and the public.’ His final report later this year will deliver recommendations for short-term interventions to ease the current crisis and ‘a vision for the future rooted in the statutory principles of sentencing and public service reform.’